Reaping the demographic dividend

Can India do it?

India’s population is expected to increase from 1.02 billion in 2001 to 1.4 billion by 2026. The country remains one of the youngest nations in the world today, with 54% being 24 years and below. Approximately 371 million will be added to the population between 2001 and 2026. It is expected that people in the age group 15-59, will account for about 83% of this increase. The big question is what proportion of this segment will be sufficiently educated and skilled to be meaningfully employed.
Nearly 50% of the demographic bulge will come from seven backward and generally badly governed states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkand, Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan and Orissa. Neither are jobs being created in these states nor is the educational infrastructure anything to rejoice about.
Meanwhile, primary enrolment is going up, leading to rising expectations among our youngsters. Unless enough investments are made in education in general and skill building in particular, there may be frustration at the mildest level and social unrest in a worst case scenario.
Another big concern is that the country’s health indicators are not looking particularly good. India has the largest number of underfed children in the world, very high rates of tuberculosis incidence and one of the highest rates of maternal mortality. So clearly, along with investments in education, we also need to spend more on health care.
As Latha Jishnu mentions in a recent Business World article, “Young and raring to go,” “If India begins in earnest to provide the right environment for the army of its young people, then it can expect to reap the demographic dividend and become a prosperous nation. If not, it will remain a poor country of ageing people.”